Be it GDP growth, sales forecasts, project costs, resources required or time needed to achieve an outcome.
We estimate all the time and yet, rarely get it right.
It’s common to overestimate the returns while underestimating the efforts needed. Sales forecasts are often optimistic and projects take longer than expected to complete.
An estimate is based on a set of known and unknown factors. While the known factors can be measured and evaluated, the unknown factors are more of guesswork.
It is critical to question the unknown factors or assumptions in order to achieve higher accuracy levels in estimates.